It’s been a rough couple days for the bond market and interest rates.  The 10 year long bond which appeared ready to headed down towards its 2.45% resistance level and maybe break through has reacted very negatively to the past few economic reports and is now at the highest levels since mid-October.  That being said, the highest level since mid October is still 0.40% BELOW mid September rates.

What’s Happening?

The very optimistic minutes from the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday started the upward trend for interest rates. Yesterday’s Jobless Claims Report came in slightly above expectations and 30,000 above the numbers we were seeing in mid-September.  Continuing Jobless Claims were also up 31,000.  Both of those should be good for rates – more people out of work is not good for the economy. But the mucky nature of the past 2 month’s reports between the computer issues in California and the shutdown have undermined the impact of the news.

Having much more impact were three reports on the business environment.  The ChicagoPurchasing Managers,  PMI Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index all came in above or significantly above expectations, indicating a good jump in the business environment and Chicago seems to be very strong.  All that’s bad for rates.

In speeches from various Fed officials on the future of the bond buying program are very mixed which would seem to indicate no real change in policy.  They have been conflicted since the program started.  The market is taking this news in a pessimistic light and we’ve seen the 10 year bond jump over an eighth of a percent since mid-week.  All that being said, mortgage ratesare sitting in the low 4% range and a month ago we were talking about 5%.

What To Expect

Don’t expect much change until Thursday.  There are few reports due out until Thursday and unless some new information or another Fed governor decides he/she needs some headlines we should stay below the 2.62% threshold on the 10 year and at 4.25% on mortgages.

The Virginia Snitch Law

In 1776, Virginia was the center of civilization for the western world.  In Virginia in 1776, there was freedom of religion, within the parameters that there was no single state sponsored church.  However, you were required to attend a church once per month.  Much of this was for state communication.  There were no predetermined election days.  When an election was needed the governor communicated through announcements from the pulpits, therefore the need to attend church.  Making the knowledge of an upcoming election even more important was the law requiring all white males to vote and in many cases that included planning for the travel to the voting place.

The law requiring you to vote had an interesting provision.  If a resident didn’t vote and another resident turned him in to the authorities, a subpoena would be issued to the non-voter.  If at the hearing for non-voting, it was determined that the non-voting reason was unsatisfactory, the non-voter would be fined 20 schillings.  That’s the cost of violating the law and being found guilty.  BUT the 20 schilling fine was then paid to snitch who turned him in.  An interesting way to induce enforcement of a law.  Just be safe and make sure you vote on Tuesday….or we’ll have to collect our reward.

Have a great weekend. Courtesy of:

Jed Marquis